A bust is described as a player that far underperforms their Average Draft Position (ADP).

1. Jonathan Taylor – ADP 6 RB 4- Two years ago Taylor destroyed defenses to finish as RB1 in fantasy football. Last season’s poor offensive play and injuries produced a very disappointing season for owners that drafted him 1.01. If he wants to return to his previous stat machine production he is going to have a tough time with rookie Anthony Richardson as the quarterback. Richardson’s legs are a threat, it is to be seen if his arm will as well. Defenses are going to stack the box because rushing is going to be the only threat, for now anyway.
2. Kenneth Walker – ADP 17 RB 17= Walker had a great rookie season last year. It’s hard to imagine that he will take a huge step back, but there are a lot of things not in his favor this year. For one thing, his yardage came from a majority of big plays. He was far more likely to have minimum or less yardage. The big plays padded his overall stats. He was also not a receiving threat out of the backfield. So the Seahawks drafted Zach Charbonnet in the third round. Charbonnet was a very effective college running back. He was also a good receiving back and looks to take that role in the offense. It is also very possible that he takes carries away from Walker.
3. J.K. Dobbins – ADP 46 RB 20= When healthy Dobbins is a top running back. The problem is that he is rarely healthy. He has missed significant time in the last three years due to injury. He is currently in a disagreement with management over his contract and has even made a “small” indication that he may sit out. It is unlikely that the Ravens are going to pay him what he wants because he rarely finishes more than half the season.
4. Alvin Kamara – ADP 51 RB 21= There is a real chance that Kamara is going to be suspended for a portion, or all of the season. When/ If he plays his production will be similar or worst than his disappointing season last year. It was rare for him to find the endzone after having a 3 TD game. Now there is Jamaal Williams who was a touchdown vulture last year on the team. They also drafted Kendre Miller who looks to steal the RB1 role during the Kamara suspension.
5. Michael Thomas – ADP 102 WR 41= Once a fantasy football WR1, he has fallen off the radar the last several years due to foot injuries. In the few games that he played, he played well. Drafting Thomas is a risk because history has shown that he can’t stay on the field. There is also a possibility that age and rust decrease his once high-value significantly. If you are willing to take a chance he could be a solid WR2 for the Saints.
6. Kyler Murray – ADP 122 QB 16= The biggest high-risk, possible high-reward player this season. There is no timetable for his potential return to the starting lineup after a season-ending injury last year. It looks like he is scheduled to return mid-season, although it’s possible to come back sooner. There is also a rumor that if the team has a losing record he may not even play this season. However, if he comes back to his previous pro bowl form, he will be a steal in the late rounds. The bigger odds is he will a bust of a pick.
7. Kenny Pickett – ADP 169 QB 21= Pickett had an average rookie season last year, nothing spectacular. The bust labeled doesn’t exactly apply here because Pickett is being drafted as a bottom QB2, so there is not a ton of room to fall. He is on this list because of a growing hype that he will exceed his ADP because of a year under his belt and additions to the offense. These expectations should be tempered.
8. Najee Harris – ADP 29 RB 16= Harris had a lot of touches last season, but he did not do a lot with them, averaging one of the lowest yards per carry in the league. His receptions increased in the second half of the year but not enough to make a significant fantasy football impact. An often unmentioned fact is that there is a running back named Jaylen Warren on the team. Warren started stealing touches from Harris and was averaging a significant increase in yards per carry than Harris. An injury derailed his hype train and allowed Harris to get all of the carries. Warren has the ability to make it a running back by committee approach in Pittsburgh. It has been reported that Harris has lost weight during the offseason to work on his speed and YPG.
9. Deebo Samuel – ADP 41 WR 17= Deebo had a down year last year, especially coming off a year where he put up monster stats. Unfortunately, a lot of those fantasy points came on the ground with runs or trick plays. Deebo has stated that he wanted his rushing role to decrease, so the 49ers traded for Christian McCaffrey. This is what led to his decline last year and does not look to improve this year with Brandon Aiyuk playing like a top receiver.
10. Michael Pittman – ADP 49 WR 21= Pittman is a very good receiver. However, he plays for a bad offense. He dealt with below-average quarterback play last year which caused his stats to drop. The Colts drafted Anthony Richardson to become their eventual starting quarterback. Richardson is known for his legs and has huge question marks about his arm mechanics. Hopefully, Richardson can develop into a good or even great quarterback, but it is more likely that will take a year or two.